PEP - Prospect Evaluation Probabilities and Risking
PEP is a fully functional 1D Monte Carlo engine. In HIIP™ PEP can be used in a traditional manner as a standard risk and uncertainty module, with user supplied distributions for porosity, net:gross, saturation, GRV and so forth, but it can also be linked directly to the grid data through Vpp. With GRV often the largest contribution to HIIP uncertainty, it allows information to be taken directly from the prospect map, with geostatistical uncertainty, into the PEP model.Merging Geostatistics and Prospect EvaluationThe key concept in HIIP™ is to link the traditional 1D Monte Carlo Prospect Evaluation approach to the grids and maps produced during any sub-surface analysis.Prospects identified on digital grids can be input directly to the Prospect Evaluation. By using the output from geostatistical uncertainty modelling the GRV uncertainty can be passed to the Prospect Evaluation as a statistical distribution of gross rock volume. In turn, the prospect parameters such as reservoir thicknesses, waste zone thicknesses and base reservoir grids can be used to modify volumetric calculations on the grids.
HIIP™ includes the play and prospect chance factors in the reporting of reserves and these parameters are set in the PEP module. Different companies will have different numbers of and names for these chance or “risk” factors. The play and prospect configuration shown below is quite common but HIIP™ is adaptable and companies can define their own standard risk factors within the software using an xml template. The user can have as many or as few factors as required and can name them according to their corporate conventions.The PEP module allows the user to set up probability distribution functions (PDF) for each of the parameters that contribute to the calculation of in-place hydrocarbons and reserves. All common PDF types are supported and distributions may also be truncated. The GRV distribution can also be used directly from a Vpp analysis based on multiple realisations, allowing the geostatistical and Vpp spillpoint results to be seamlessly passed into the final prospect evaluation.After defining the required input PDF’s, the PEP module then runs a Monte Carlo analysis to combine the PDF’s and reports final distribution functions for hydrocarbons in-place and for reserves. The reporting is also split by gross and net interest in the in-place or reserves, defined by the production working interest parameter set by the user for each analysis.PEP also allows a large amount of text, context and geological information to be attached to each prospect evaluation and this can then used to generate summary reports containing all relevant information as well as the hydrocarbon volume calculations. Different reserve categories can be selected and, like the chance factor categories, these can be configured to suit the customer’s requirements.We hope you found this overview of PEP interesting and useful. If you have any further queries or wish to find out about the software release status, licensing or pricing please send an e-mail to: or call +44 (0) 1224 619 300
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